Welcome! Merlyn.AI
represents a paradigm shift in ETF design. While most
ETFs focus on a specific slice of the market, such as a
particular sector, factor, theme, or asset class,
Merlyn.AI sponsors ETFs designed to be complete,
self-contained, tactical portfolio management systems in
a tax-efficient ETF wrapper. Each month each ETF
evaluates over 400 US ETFs across broad and divergent
markets and select a portfolio that seeks to provide the
five things investors want most (right). Superior
investment decisions require superior signal processing
methods that can reduce market noise and clarify the
momentum signal. Merlyn.AI employs the
most proficient
signal processing methods available, many of which come from
the same cross-disciplinary
sciences that enable today's WiFi, USB, iPhones, and
remotely controlled rovers on Mars. For more on this
topic, please see: Index
Overview
The
SectorSurfer Momentum Index
(100/0 Equities/Bonds
Allocation)
The MAI
SectorSurfer Momentum Index begins with a
100/0 equities/bonds allocation typical of a classic
aggressive portfolio. Each of its six underlying momentum
strategies selects one ETF, its momentum leader, for the
portfolio to hold. During Bull markets, the Index
allocates 70% to four domestic economic sector ETFs and
30% to two geopolitical sector ETFs (regions and countries).
When a Bear market is signaled the Index
automatically allocates 100% to a portfolio of bonds,
treasuries and other defensive ETFs. The Index
employs
Temporal
Portfolio Theory, including owning
only momentum leaders and the methods of tactical
risk avoidance — risk is not
a one-dimensional problem cured by a single dose
of diversification. The Index
additionally employs the below methods seeking to improve
risk and return performance:
• Advanced
signal processing that clarifies the momentum signal and seeks to improve fund selection reliability; • Bull/Bear Indicators StormGuard-Armor
and SwanGuard,
to determine the market's Bull vs. Bear status; • Adaptive
Tuning that seeks to eliminate hindsight bias
when
tuning the
momentum filters; • Fuzzy
Logic to better assess the 14 conditions that
determine the Bull
vs. Bear status; and • Genetic
Algorithms that seek to eliminate hindsight
selection bias by evolving candidate sets monthly.
The Best-of-Breed
Core Momentum Index (100/0 Equities/Bonds Allocation)
The
MAI Best-of-Breed Core Momentum Index begins
with a 100/0 equities/bonds allocation typical
of a classic aggressive portfolio. Each of its
three underlying momentum strategies selects one
ETF, its momentum leader, for the portfolio to
hold. Selected ETFs must have > $10B of AUM
(assets under management). During Bull markets,
the Index allocates 35% to an economic sector
strategy selection, 35% to a factor-mix strategy
selection, and 30% to a global regions strategy
selection. When a Bear market is signaled
the Index automatically allocates 100% to a
portfolio of bonds, treasuries and other
defensive ETFs. The Index employs
Temporal
Portfolio Theory, including owning
only momentum leaders and the methods of tactical
risk avoidance — risk is not
a one-dimensional problem cured by a single dose
of diversification. The Index
additionally employs the below methods seeking to improve
risk and return performance:
• Advanced
signal processing that clarifies the momentum signal and seeks to improve fund selection reliability; • Bull/Bear Indicators StormGuard-Armor
and SwanGuard,
to determine the market's Bull vs. Bear status; • Adaptive
Tuning that seeks to eliminate hindsight bias
when
tuning the
momentum filters; • Fuzzy
Logic to better assess the 14 conditions that
determine the Bull
vs. Bear status; and • Genetic
Algorithms that seek to eliminate hindsight
selection bias by evolving candidate sets monthly.
The Bull-Rider Bear-Fighter Index (80/20 Equities/Bonds Allocation)
The
MAI Bull-Rider Bear-Fighter Index begins with an
80/20 equities/bonds allocation typical of a
classic growth portfolio. Each of eight
underlying momentum strategies selects one ETF
(its momentum leader) for the portfolio to
hold. During bull markets, the Index allocates
35% to sectors, 15% to countries, 10% to global
regions, 10% to factors, 10% to style-mix, and
20% to bonds, treasuries, gold and the like. When a Bear market is signaled
the Index automatically allocates 100% to a
portfolio of bonds, treasuries and other
defensive ETFs. The Index employs
Temporal
Portfolio Theory, including owning
only momentum leaders and the methods of tactical
risk avoidance — risk is not
a one-dimensional problem cured by a single dose
of diversification. The Index
additionally employs the below methods seeking to improve
risk and return performance:
• Advanced
signal processing that clarifies the momentum signal and seeks to improve fund selection reliability; • Bull/Bear Indicators StormGuard-Armor
and SwanGuard,
to determine the market's Bull vs. Bear status; • Adaptive
Tuning that seeks to eliminate hindsight bias
when
tuning the
momentum filters; • Fuzzy
Logic to better assess the 14 conditions that
determine the Bull
vs. Bear status; and • Genetic
Algorithms that seek to eliminate hindsight
selection bias by evolving candidate sets monthly.
The Tactical Growth and Income Index (30/70 Equities/Bonds Allocation)
The
MAI Tactical Growth and Income Index begins with
a 30/70 equities/bonds allocation typical of a
classic conservative portfolio. Each of eight
underlying momentum strategies selects one ETF
(its momentum leader) for the portfolio to hold.
During bull markets, the Index allocates 15% to
sectors, 5% to countries, 5% to global regions,
5% to dividends, and 70% to bonds, treasuries,
gold, and the like. When a Bear market is signaled
the Index automatically allocates 100% to a
portfolio of bonds, treasuries and other
defensive ETFs. The Index employs
Temporal
Portfolio Theory, including owning
only momentum leaders and the methods of tactical
risk avoidance — risk is not
a one-dimensional problem cured by a single dose
of diversification. The Index
additionally employs the below methods seeking to improve
risk and return performance:
• Advanced
signal processing that clarifies the momentum signal and seeks to improve fund selection reliability; • Bull/Bear Indicators StormGuard-Armor
and SwanGuard,
to determine the market's Bull vs. Bear status; • Adaptive
Tuning that seeks to eliminate hindsight bias
when
tuning the
momentum filters; • Fuzzy
Logic to better assess the 14 conditions that
determine the Bull
vs. Bear status; and • Genetic
Algorithms that seek to eliminate hindsight
selection bias by evolving candidate sets monthly.
About Merlyn.AI
Merlyn.AI Corporation (MAI) is a Palo Alto-based exchange traded fund
sponsor launched in January 2019 by two long-time friends, David Epstein
and Scott Juds. MAI is exclusively licensed to create and market ETFs
based on the Merlyn.AI technology developed by Seattle-based SumGrowth
Strategies, LLC. Merlyn.AI is the result of more than three decades of
research and development by MAI Co-Founder, Chairman and CSO
Scott Juds, who discovered momentum in market data using advanced signal
processing in early 1992.
Scott Juds,
Co-Founder, Chairman and CEO is also the Founder and CEO of
Seattle-based SumGrowth Strategies (a decade-old company with two
automated platforms - AlphaDroid for advisors and SectorSurfer for
individual investors). He was formerly the Founder and President of piTech Engineering of Seattle, Co-Founder and VP of Engineering for IDX
Inc. of AR, and VP of Advanced Engineering for EATON Corporation's Opcon
division. Mr. Juds has been granted over 40 U.S. and foreign patents,
holds an MSEE from Stanford University, and a BSEE from the University
of Wisconsin – Madison. He won the prestigious NAAIM Wagner Award in
2016 with his paper "Investment
Performance Improvement Utilizing Automated Polymorphic Momentum" and currently serves as a
NAAIM panel judge for the
annual contest. Mr. Juds is the creator of Temporal Portfolio Theory
(Modern Portfolio Theory extended with advanced signal processing), and the author of
both "Conquering the Seven Faces of Risk" (FinTech Press 2017) and
"Photoelectric Sensors and Controls" (Marcel Dekker 1988).
Sue Guzman,
Director. With an MS-Engineering Management
degree from Stanford University and BSEE from UW-Madison, Ms. Guzman has
three decades of successful corporate leadership experience in Blue Chip
firms (Hewlett Packard and National Instruments), as well as new
companies, such as fiber optics startup kSaria. These experiences led to
her selection as CEO and General Manager (ret.) of Celerity Systems/Aeroflex
Inc., a major supplier of broadband test and measurement products based
in Cupertino, CA. Aside from her duties at MAI, she is President of
Canine Companions for Independence (South Bay), a nonprofit that trains
highly skilled assistance dogs for placement with children and adults
with disabilities— for free.
Lisa
Noble, Vice President of Marketing and Communications.
With a BS and MS
in Electronics and Communications Engineering from Rice University Lisa
started her career designing signal processing software and hardware for
spread spectrum communication systems
at ESL/TRW, and later co-founded Spectral Innovations, a developer of
digital signal processing technology. After continuing her education
with a JD from Stanford Law School, she held positions as a patent attorney at
Fenwick and West, Associate General Counsel and Intellectual Property
Attorney at DIVA Systems, and Director of Intellectual Property at Liberate
Technologies. More recently, she founded Lisa Noble Photography with
publications including Cosmopolitan, Oprah Magazine, Huffington Post,
Showtime, Travel Channel and The Colbert Show.
Warren Hyland,
Hyland, Co-Founder and Director, is a strong
business development and technology licensing professional, skilled in
startups, turn-arounds, sensing technology, waste management, biofuels,
mining, and renewable energy — and sailing the warm beautiful
seas. Mr. Hyland is
CEO of the Inventor Mentor Group, Manager of the Wizards Chest, LLC,
Manager of the Legacy Fund, LLC, Co-Founder of Luminaerospace, and past
Director of Novita Technologies. Mr. Hyland holds a BaSc Engineering from
the University of Toronto.
Notice: Your use of this site is
considered equivalent to your signature as evidence of your
acceptance of our Terms of Use, and Privacy Policy. Merlyn.AI,
Bull-Rider Bear-Fighter, Tactically Conservative & Bullish on
Life, SectorSurfer, True Sector Rotation, StormGuard,
StormGuard-Armor, Polymorphic Momentum, Tactical Diversification, Temporal
Portfolio Theory, and SumGrowth
Strategies, are all trademarks of
SumGrowth Strategies, LLC. Seattle WA 98125. Copyright 2010-2020 SumGrowth Strategies,
LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Neither Merlyn.AI Corporation nor SumGrowth Strategies,
LLC is a
registered investment
advisor and neither provides professional financial investment
advice specific to your life situation. Our Indexes are
solely an
algorithmic analysis of market data that produces trade signals according
to the universe of funds provided for analysis. Portfolio
performance prior to its inception date
is hypothetical and based on trading at the close of the
specified rebalance dates and is NOT net of management and
operational fees.
Scott Juds,
Co-Founder, Chairman and CEO is also the Founder and CEO of
Seattle-based SumGrowth Strategies (a decade-old company with two
automated platforms - AlphaDroid for advisors and SectorSurfer for
individual investors). He was formerly the Founder and President of piTech Engineering of Seattle, Co-Founder and VP of Engineering for IDX
Inc. of AR, and VP of Advanced Engineering for EATON Corporation's Opcon
division. Mr. Juds has been granted over 40 U.S. and foreign patents,
holds an MSEE from Stanford University, and a BSEE from the University
of Wisconsin – Madison. He won the prestigious NAAIM Wagner Award in
2016 with his paper "
Sue Guzman,
Director. With an MS-Engineering Management
degree from Stanford University and BSEE from UW-Madison, Ms. Guzman has
three decades of successful corporate leadership experience in Blue Chip
firms (Hewlett Packard and National Instruments), as well as new
companies, such as fiber optics startup kSaria. These experiences led to
her selection as CEO and General Manager (ret.) of Celerity Systems/Aeroflex
Inc., a major supplier of broadband test and measurement products based
in Cupertino, CA. Aside from her duties at MAI, she is President of
Canine Companions for Independence (South Bay), a nonprofit that trains
highly skilled assistance dogs for placement with children and adults
with disabilities— for free. 
Lisa
Noble, Vice President of Marketing and Communications.
With a BS and MS
in Electronics and Communications Engineering from Rice University Lisa
started her career designing signal processing software and hardware for
spread spectrum communication systems
at ESL/TRW, and later co-founded Spectral Innovations, a developer of
digital signal processing technology. After continuing her education
with a JD from Stanford Law School, she held positions as a patent attorney at
Fenwick and West, Associate General Counsel and Intellectual Property
Attorney at DIVA Systems, and Director of Intellectual Property at Liberate
Technologies. More recently, she founded Lisa Noble Photography with
publications including Cosmopolitan, Oprah Magazine, Huffington Post,
Showtime, Travel Channel and The Colbert Show. 
Warren Hyland,
Hyland, Co-Founder and Director, is a strong
business development and technology licensing professional, skilled in
startups, turn-arounds, sensing technology, waste management, biofuels,
mining, and renewable energy — and sailing the warm beautiful
seas. Mr. Hyland is
CEO of the Inventor Mentor Group, Manager of the Wizards Chest, LLC,
Manager of the Legacy Fund, LLC, Co-Founder of Luminaerospace, and past
Director of Novita Technologies. Mr. Hyland holds a BaSc Engineering from
the University of Toronto.